Ray Kurweill’s Predictions

See Ray Kurzweill’s Predictions for 2019 [according to The Age of Intelligent Machines, published in 1990].

Some are a bit out of date, others are common. Some real, more only in the developed world, and not in the whole world. Anyway, predictions made 25 years ago, very interesting. Kurzweill, in addition to everything influenced in the world of the musical synthesizers, making history there also. Here they are:

• The computing power of a $ 4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capacity of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
• The combined computational powers of all computers are comparable with the total intellectual resources of the human race.
• Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside the electronics, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
• People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (Retina Display). Along with an audio source (headphones), users can communicate remotely with others and access the Internet.
• These special glasses and contact lenses can offer “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can design “heads-up screen” (HUDs) across the user’s viewing area, overlaying images that remain in place in the environment, regardless of user perspective or orientation. Secondly, virtual objects or people could be processed at fixed places by the glasses, and so when the user’s eyes look elsewhere, the objects seem to stay in their places. Thirdly, devices can completely block the “real” world and fully insert the user into a virtual reality environment.
• People communicate with their computers through two-way speech and gestures rather than with keyboards. In addition, most of this interaction occurs through computer wizards with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
• Most business transactions or requests for information involve dealing with a dummy person.
• Most people own more than one PC, although the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box attached to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all kinds of unexpected shapes and sizes.
• Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
• Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
• Three-dimensional nano-tube grids are the dominant computing substrate.
• Massively parallel neural networks and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
• Destructive brain scans and non-invasive brain scans have enabled scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred to the computer neural networks.
• Pin-head sized cameras are everywhere.
• Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, but has not yet done so for the mass market. “Nano-engineered machines” begin to be fabricated.
• Lightweight, slim, your handheld has very high resolutions and are the preferred media for viewing documents. The above mentioned computer goggles and contact lenses are also used for the same purpose, and all download the wireless information.
• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
• Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive didactic material presented by computer simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and assist students remotely.
• Students still learn together and socialize, although this is often done remotely through computers.
• All students have access to computers.
• Most human workers spend most of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
• Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. People with vision also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
• Neural and retinal implants also exist but are in limited use because they are less useful.
• The deaf wear special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear implants (implants in the ear) and others are also widely used.
• People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb stairs using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exo-skeletal robotic walkers.
• Computers are also found within some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by people with disabilities to recover normal physical faculties (for example, retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants along with mechanical legs allow paralytics to walk).
• Language translation machines are of much higher quality, and are used routinely in conversations.
• Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) are available
• Internet access is completely wireless and provided by wearable (or wearable) computers or deployed.
• People are able to access the Internet wirelessly at all times from almost anywhere
• Devices that deliver sensations to the surface of their users’ skin (for example, special protective clothing or gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experiment. “Virtual sex” -in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human being can have sex with a “dummy” partner who only exists on a computer, become a reality.
• As well as audio-visual reality appear, the haptic technology has matured completely and is completely convincing, but requires the user to enter a virtual reality space. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical exams. It is the preferred sexual form since it is safe and enhances the experience (sic).
• World economic growth continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
• The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a virtual personal assistant of a human being and a dummy retailer.
• Domestic robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
• Computers do most of the driving of vehicles – humans are actually banned from driving on unattended highways. In addition, when humans do not take the wheel, the on-board computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
• Most roads now have automated systems-driving networks for monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled vehicles to navigate safely.
• There are now prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps. They are also mainly computer controlled.
• Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which have some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be granted more rights.
• Although a growing number of human beings believe that their computers and the simulated personalities with which they interact are intelligent in the context of human-level consciousness, experts discard the possibility that anyone could pass the Turing test. (Obs. Roughly, the Turing Test evaluates whether a robot response is a human response)
• Relationships between humans and robots beginning with simulated personalities have become more compelling.
• Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
• Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is an important political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
• The satisfaction of basic needs of the lower class is realized. (It is not specified whether this concerns only the developed world or for all countries)
• Virtual Artists – Creative computers capable of making their own art and music begin to emerge in all fields of the arts.